Bitcoin is down more than 80% from its all-time high, having plummeted since the beginning of this year, dragging most major cryptocurrencies with it, including the likes of ethereum and Ripple’s XRP.
This time last year bitcoin was fast approaching its all-time high of near $20,000 and investors and traders were euphoric over bitcoin’s epic 2017 bull run.
Now, bitcoin bulls have sobered up in the face of an overwhelming bear market that continues to maul the bitcoin price and former Goldman Sachs partner and founder of cryptocurrency merchant bank Galaxy Digital Holdings Mike Novogratz has a stark warning for the crypto faithful.
Many in the bitcoin and cryptocurrency community believe that adoption of digital tokens will revolutionize the financial services industry (and perhaps society itself), using blockchain, bitcoin’s underlying technology, to improve clunky and outdated systems.
But how exactly this bitcoin revolution is expected to happen is not entirely clear—nor is how long it might take.
“Revolutions don’t happen overnight,” Novogratz warned in an interview with Bloomberg. “While I believe in the underlying technology and believe in the crypto movement, when prices get stupid, I sell. A lot of my friends in crypto just couldn’t let go. They were saying, ‘This is going to change the world.'”
Earlier this year the bitcoin price appeared to have found a floor at a little over $6,000. Bitcoin hovered around there for months and many, including Novogratz, thought this was as low as it was going to go.
“I did think Bitcoin was going to hold at $6,200,” said Novogratz. “It stayed there for four months. It felt like the selling was finished. But then Bitcoin Cash decided to fork again.”
However, Novogratz remains confident that bitcoin will make a comeback.
“I do believe Bitcoin is going to be digital gold. We have a business that we think can break even next year, if not make money. We’ve got plenty of cash to run the business for a long time. I keep telling my guys we’re a surfer getting ourselves in shape for when the next wave comes, and when the wave comes we’d better be the Laird Hamilton of crypto.”
Meanwhile, others have also said they don’t expect bitcoin to die due to its recent bust, despite some predicting it’s over for the bitcoin experiment.
“We shouldn’t be surprised by this year’s cryptocurrency price bust, [but] the price of these coins is not necessarily zero,” Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University and former IMF chief economist, wrote earlier this week in the Guardian newspaper. “Like lottery tickets, there is a high probability that they are worthless. There is also an extremely small outside chance that they will be worth a great deal someday, for reasons that currently are difficult to anticipate.”